I. Overview of the second quarter of the semiconductor industry In the second quarter of 2011, the overall IC industry output value in Taiwan (including design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing) reached NT$418.3 billion, which was only 4.5% higher than the first quarter of 2011. The biggest reasons are (1) the economic recovery in the United States and Japan is slow, emerging markets are facing inflation issues, coupled with the European debt crisis; (2) deferred demand for PC/NB, traditional mobile phones, etc. did not appear; (3) NT$ Continue to appreciate. Overall, Taiwan's IC industry has seen signs of a bottoming rebound after two consecutive quarters of recession. Among them, the IC design industry rebounded the most (growth 6.3%), while the IC test industry was the smallest (only 2.1% growth).
First of all, we observed the IC design industry. As the global demand for PCs and NBs remained weak, and the mainland China policy suppressed white-box handsets and suppressed shipments, domestic related industry revenues remained flat. However, as global Apple products (such as iPhone, iPad, etc.) continue to be hot, and global PC makers have successively launched iPad-like products, they have driven the growth of shipments of domestic smart handheld devices, such as touch-control chips, WiFi, Bluetooth, GPS, and cameras. Sensing and controlling wafers. Overall, the output value of Taiwan's IC design industry in the second quarter of 2011 was NT$99.5 billion, which was 6.3% higher than the first quarter of 2011, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 6.0% in the first quarter.
In the IC manufacturing industry, due to the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, the demand was not as expected, the number of foundry inventory days increased, and production capacity was no longer full. In the second quarter of 2011, the output value only grew by 4.2% from the previous quarter, and by 2.4% from the same period of last year. Furthermore, in terms of its own products, except for Mao De's revenue decline of more than 20%, the rest of the Memory or IDM companies showed a quarter-to-quarter growth rate. As DRAM prices continue to bottom out in the second quarter of 2011, it is unfavorable for the profitability and revenue performance of Taiwanese manufacturers, and it also brings huge operational pressure. The estimated IC manufacturing output including Memory and IDM will grow by 5.8% from the previous quarter and a sharp drop of 29.5% from the same period of last year.
Finally, in the IC packaging and testing industry, in the second quarter of 2011, although the built-in wafer packaging and testing orders for mobile devices such as smart phones and tablet PCs remained high, many customers had excess orders after the 311 earthquake in Japan ( (Overbooking) The situation occurred. In June, the client began to go into inventory, coupled with a new record high in gold prices, and the NT exchange rate to go up and eat up revenue, making Taiwan's packaging and testing industry in the second quarter of 2011 revenue is not as expected, only slightly growing up. Estimated production volume in Taiwan in the second quarter of 2011 was 76.3 billion Taiwan dollars, a slight increase of 3.0% from the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2011, the Taiwan test industry’s output value was 33.9 billion Taiwan dollars, a slight increase of 2.1% from the previous quarter.
Second, the analysis of major events in the second quarter 1. MediaTek succeeded in launching Quad-Chip after Broadcom, targeting Mainland China and Emerging Markets, MediaTek, and purchasing Ralink. Integrating both wireless broadband network technologies and the launch of Wi-Fi 11n, Bluetooth, GPS and FM quad-core SoC chips . It is scheduled to begin shipments in the third quarter of 2011, targeting the smart phone market of mainland Chinese brands.
MediaTek is the world's second only to Broadcom, the second IC design company that has successfully launched a four-in-one chip. However, Broadcom's 4-in-1 chip has successfully entered the Apple supply chain (including iPhones and iPads), and it has also made orders for smart phones and tablets from most international brand manufacturers. MediaTek’s chances of entering a major international brand may not be high. Because MediaTek has ARM and MIPS authorized CPU IP, plus acquisition of Ralink. The entire chip technology covers everything from core chips such as AP and Baseband to peripheral chips such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GPS, and FM. In the future, MediaTek may follow the successful model of 2G/2.5G mobile phones. It adopts public board design, integrates core chips including CPU and 3G, and peripheral chips such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GPS, and FM, and designs Android-based operating systems. Cut into the Chinese mainland and emerging markets. The future will not only be applied to smart phones but also to tablet computers. But if it succeeds, it must continue to observe 2. Wei Wei Dentsu's CDMA chips won Samsung's first 4G LTE smart phone using Samsung's first 4G LTE smart phone "DROID Charge" CDMA chipset, choosing VIA-backed Via Telecom rather than Qualcomm. Qualcomm’s dominance in the global CDMA market was for the first time challenged.
At present, the world's second largest CDMA baseband chip suppliers include Qualcomm and Verizon. Qualcomm has always dominated the CDMA baseband chip market for international brands such as the United States and the United States. Weirui specializes in the Chinese mainland brands including Huawei and the white card market. Obviously separated. Samsung is the world’s leading manufacturer of 2G/3G mobile phones, and CDMA handsets are mainly based on Qualcomm chips. The 4G LTE mobile phone, Wei Rui entered the Samsung supply chain, will break the long-term Samsung CDMA baseband chip monopoly by Qualcomm. For the future the entire 4G LTE baseband chip ecosystem will have an impact. Wei Rui Dentsu enters Samsung's supply chain and has the opportunity to enter the brand market from the mainland China's white-box market. It can also use its strength to enter the international markets including the US and South Korea. For Wei Rui Dentsu, it is a rare opportunity.
3. "The 12th Five-Year Plan" will double the size of the IC design industry in Mainland China to more than US$10 billion. Although the key technologies of chipsets in Mainland China are still dominated by international companies, the technical strength of IC design companies in Mainland China has seen obvious progress. Many international brand manufacturers, such as Dell, Microsoft, and Apple, have adopted relevant mobile chip solutions (such as Spreadtrum, Gecom, etc.). As the development of the "12th Five-Year Plan" new-generation information technology strategic industry focuses on applications related to mobile communication technology, it is expected that chip makers in mainland China will have a great opportunity for development. It is estimated that the IC design industry in Mainland China is expected to maintain the growth rate of 2 prefixes between 2011 and 2015, and the target output value in 2015 will reach US$ 10.7 billion, accounting for a significant increase in the global share to 12.5%.
In the past, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period (2006-2010), the annual growth rate of the output value of the IC design industry in mainland China was as high as 24%, and in 2010 it was approximately US$5 billion. In the future, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, under the support of the “New 18 Document†policy, the annual growth rate is likely to exceed the standard of the past. Moreover, the preferential policies for semiconductors in mainland China continued to increase, but Taiwan gradually withdrew, and the gap between incentive measures across the Taiwan Strait has widened. The gap between the two sides of the Taiwan IC design industry in industrial scale, R&D standards, and design technology (45nm) has narrowed.
In 2010, the output value of Taiwan's IC design industry was US$15.2 billion, and CAGR was about 9.8% in the past five years. CAGR is estimated to be about 7% in the next five years. Looking at this trend, it is very likely that in the next 6-7 years (about 2017), the output value of the IC design industry in mainland China will surpass Taiwan and become the second largest in the world. The cross-strait IC design industry will show up and down in the global map. It is worth noting that .
III. Outlook for the future 1. Outlook for the third quarter of 2011: The semiconductor industry in Taiwan declined slightly in the third quarter of 2011 to NT$413.8 billion, a 1.1% decline from the second quarter.
In the IC design industry, although the domestic IC design industry has experienced inventory deregulation in the past half year, it appears that the deferred demand for the entire PC/NB and traditional mobile phones did not appear as expected, and Intel also revised down CPU shipments. According to estimates, the peak season effect may not be as good as before. Estimated production value in the third quarter of 2011 was NT$108.4 billion, which was only 9% in the quarter.
In the IC manufacturing industry, as the demand for foundry may not be as expected, it is expected to decline by 8.7%. IDM industry, including DRAM, will decline 7.9% in the third quarter of 2011 as DRAM ASP declines and some manufacturers reduce their shipments. It is estimated that the total output value of Taiwan's IC manufacturing industry in the third quarter of 2011 was NT 190.9 billion, which was 8.5% lower than the second quarter of 2011.
In IC packaging and testing industry, it will show the bottom of July and August, and it will rebound in September. There will still be inventory correction pressure in the first quarter of the third quarter. Although the mobile and tablet application chips still have growth momentum, the growth rate is lower than previously expected. . Although mobile phone makers began to prepare for the 11th annual holiday in the mainland and the demand for European and American Christmas season at the end of the year, only issues such as EU debt and U.S. debt ceilings may reduce the end market spending power. In the third quarter, the packaging and testing plant determined that the peak season was not prosperous. It is estimated that the output value of Taiwan's packaging and testing industry in the third quarter of 2011 will reach NT$79.5 billion and RMB35 billion respectively, representing a slight increase of 4.2% and 3.2% from the second quarter of 2011.
Overall, the semiconductor industry in Taiwan in the third quarter of 2011 was NT$413.8 billion, a slight decline of 1.1% from the second quarter.
2. Full-year outlook for 2011: Taiwan’s semiconductor industry was NT$1.6653 trillion, a 5.8% decline from 2010
In the IC design industry, although smart handheld devices such as application processors, baseband, Netcom, and RF, etc. performed well in both the mainland and non-Apple camps, the demand for PC/NB chips was determined in the second half of the year. Not expected, it is expected to decline by 8.7% for the entire year of 2011, with a production value of NT$415.4 billion.
In the IC manufacturing sector, the output value of Taiwan's IC manufacturing industry is estimated to reach NT$801.9 billion, a decline of 9.3%.
In the IC packaging and testing industry, due to the sluggish global consumer demand coupled with the prolonged adjustment of semiconductor inventories and the pressure from memory manufacturers to reduce the prices of OEMs, it is estimated that the output value of Taiwan's packaging and testing industry will reach NT$3 in 2011, respectively. , 10.4 billion and 137.6 billion, only 4.5% and 3.7% over 2010.
On the whole, the semiconductor industry in Taiwan will decline slightly in 2011, with a production value of NT$1.6653 trillion, a 5.8% decline from 2010.
First of all, we observed the IC design industry. As the global demand for PCs and NBs remained weak, and the mainland China policy suppressed white-box handsets and suppressed shipments, domestic related industry revenues remained flat. However, as global Apple products (such as iPhone, iPad, etc.) continue to be hot, and global PC makers have successively launched iPad-like products, they have driven the growth of shipments of domestic smart handheld devices, such as touch-control chips, WiFi, Bluetooth, GPS, and cameras. Sensing and controlling wafers. Overall, the output value of Taiwan's IC design industry in the second quarter of 2011 was NT$99.5 billion, which was 6.3% higher than the first quarter of 2011, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 6.0% in the first quarter.
In the IC manufacturing industry, due to the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, the demand was not as expected, the number of foundry inventory days increased, and production capacity was no longer full. In the second quarter of 2011, the output value only grew by 4.2% from the previous quarter, and by 2.4% from the same period of last year. Furthermore, in terms of its own products, except for Mao De's revenue decline of more than 20%, the rest of the Memory or IDM companies showed a quarter-to-quarter growth rate. As DRAM prices continue to bottom out in the second quarter of 2011, it is unfavorable for the profitability and revenue performance of Taiwanese manufacturers, and it also brings huge operational pressure. The estimated IC manufacturing output including Memory and IDM will grow by 5.8% from the previous quarter and a sharp drop of 29.5% from the same period of last year.
Finally, in the IC packaging and testing industry, in the second quarter of 2011, although the built-in wafer packaging and testing orders for mobile devices such as smart phones and tablet PCs remained high, many customers had excess orders after the 311 earthquake in Japan ( (Overbooking) The situation occurred. In June, the client began to go into inventory, coupled with a new record high in gold prices, and the NT exchange rate to go up and eat up revenue, making Taiwan's packaging and testing industry in the second quarter of 2011 revenue is not as expected, only slightly growing up. Estimated production volume in Taiwan in the second quarter of 2011 was 76.3 billion Taiwan dollars, a slight increase of 3.0% from the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2011, the Taiwan test industry’s output value was 33.9 billion Taiwan dollars, a slight increase of 2.1% from the previous quarter.
Second, the analysis of major events in the second quarter 1. MediaTek succeeded in launching Quad-Chip after Broadcom, targeting Mainland China and Emerging Markets, MediaTek, and purchasing Ralink. Integrating both wireless broadband network technologies and the launch of Wi-Fi 11n, Bluetooth, GPS and FM quad-core SoC chips . It is scheduled to begin shipments in the third quarter of 2011, targeting the smart phone market of mainland Chinese brands.
MediaTek is the world's second only to Broadcom, the second IC design company that has successfully launched a four-in-one chip. However, Broadcom's 4-in-1 chip has successfully entered the Apple supply chain (including iPhones and iPads), and it has also made orders for smart phones and tablets from most international brand manufacturers. MediaTek’s chances of entering a major international brand may not be high. Because MediaTek has ARM and MIPS authorized CPU IP, plus acquisition of Ralink. The entire chip technology covers everything from core chips such as AP and Baseband to peripheral chips such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GPS, and FM. In the future, MediaTek may follow the successful model of 2G/2.5G mobile phones. It adopts public board design, integrates core chips including CPU and 3G, and peripheral chips such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GPS, and FM, and designs Android-based operating systems. Cut into the Chinese mainland and emerging markets. The future will not only be applied to smart phones but also to tablet computers. But if it succeeds, it must continue to observe 2. Wei Wei Dentsu's CDMA chips won Samsung's first 4G LTE smart phone using Samsung's first 4G LTE smart phone "DROID Charge" CDMA chipset, choosing VIA-backed Via Telecom rather than Qualcomm. Qualcomm’s dominance in the global CDMA market was for the first time challenged.
At present, the world's second largest CDMA baseband chip suppliers include Qualcomm and Verizon. Qualcomm has always dominated the CDMA baseband chip market for international brands such as the United States and the United States. Weirui specializes in the Chinese mainland brands including Huawei and the white card market. Obviously separated. Samsung is the world’s leading manufacturer of 2G/3G mobile phones, and CDMA handsets are mainly based on Qualcomm chips. The 4G LTE mobile phone, Wei Rui entered the Samsung supply chain, will break the long-term Samsung CDMA baseband chip monopoly by Qualcomm. For the future the entire 4G LTE baseband chip ecosystem will have an impact. Wei Rui Dentsu enters Samsung's supply chain and has the opportunity to enter the brand market from the mainland China's white-box market. It can also use its strength to enter the international markets including the US and South Korea. For Wei Rui Dentsu, it is a rare opportunity.
3. "The 12th Five-Year Plan" will double the size of the IC design industry in Mainland China to more than US$10 billion. Although the key technologies of chipsets in Mainland China are still dominated by international companies, the technical strength of IC design companies in Mainland China has seen obvious progress. Many international brand manufacturers, such as Dell, Microsoft, and Apple, have adopted relevant mobile chip solutions (such as Spreadtrum, Gecom, etc.). As the development of the "12th Five-Year Plan" new-generation information technology strategic industry focuses on applications related to mobile communication technology, it is expected that chip makers in mainland China will have a great opportunity for development. It is estimated that the IC design industry in Mainland China is expected to maintain the growth rate of 2 prefixes between 2011 and 2015, and the target output value in 2015 will reach US$ 10.7 billion, accounting for a significant increase in the global share to 12.5%.
In the past, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period (2006-2010), the annual growth rate of the output value of the IC design industry in mainland China was as high as 24%, and in 2010 it was approximately US$5 billion. In the future, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, under the support of the “New 18 Document†policy, the annual growth rate is likely to exceed the standard of the past. Moreover, the preferential policies for semiconductors in mainland China continued to increase, but Taiwan gradually withdrew, and the gap between incentive measures across the Taiwan Strait has widened. The gap between the two sides of the Taiwan IC design industry in industrial scale, R&D standards, and design technology (45nm) has narrowed.
In 2010, the output value of Taiwan's IC design industry was US$15.2 billion, and CAGR was about 9.8% in the past five years. CAGR is estimated to be about 7% in the next five years. Looking at this trend, it is very likely that in the next 6-7 years (about 2017), the output value of the IC design industry in mainland China will surpass Taiwan and become the second largest in the world. The cross-strait IC design industry will show up and down in the global map. It is worth noting that .
III. Outlook for the future 1. Outlook for the third quarter of 2011: The semiconductor industry in Taiwan declined slightly in the third quarter of 2011 to NT$413.8 billion, a 1.1% decline from the second quarter.
In the IC design industry, although the domestic IC design industry has experienced inventory deregulation in the past half year, it appears that the deferred demand for the entire PC/NB and traditional mobile phones did not appear as expected, and Intel also revised down CPU shipments. According to estimates, the peak season effect may not be as good as before. Estimated production value in the third quarter of 2011 was NT$108.4 billion, which was only 9% in the quarter.
In the IC manufacturing industry, as the demand for foundry may not be as expected, it is expected to decline by 8.7%. IDM industry, including DRAM, will decline 7.9% in the third quarter of 2011 as DRAM ASP declines and some manufacturers reduce their shipments. It is estimated that the total output value of Taiwan's IC manufacturing industry in the third quarter of 2011 was NT 190.9 billion, which was 8.5% lower than the second quarter of 2011.
In IC packaging and testing industry, it will show the bottom of July and August, and it will rebound in September. There will still be inventory correction pressure in the first quarter of the third quarter. Although the mobile and tablet application chips still have growth momentum, the growth rate is lower than previously expected. . Although mobile phone makers began to prepare for the 11th annual holiday in the mainland and the demand for European and American Christmas season at the end of the year, only issues such as EU debt and U.S. debt ceilings may reduce the end market spending power. In the third quarter, the packaging and testing plant determined that the peak season was not prosperous. It is estimated that the output value of Taiwan's packaging and testing industry in the third quarter of 2011 will reach NT$79.5 billion and RMB35 billion respectively, representing a slight increase of 4.2% and 3.2% from the second quarter of 2011.
Overall, the semiconductor industry in Taiwan in the third quarter of 2011 was NT$413.8 billion, a slight decline of 1.1% from the second quarter.
2. Full-year outlook for 2011: Taiwan’s semiconductor industry was NT$1.6653 trillion, a 5.8% decline from 2010
In the IC design industry, although smart handheld devices such as application processors, baseband, Netcom, and RF, etc. performed well in both the mainland and non-Apple camps, the demand for PC/NB chips was determined in the second half of the year. Not expected, it is expected to decline by 8.7% for the entire year of 2011, with a production value of NT$415.4 billion.
In the IC manufacturing sector, the output value of Taiwan's IC manufacturing industry is estimated to reach NT$801.9 billion, a decline of 9.3%.
In the IC packaging and testing industry, due to the sluggish global consumer demand coupled with the prolonged adjustment of semiconductor inventories and the pressure from memory manufacturers to reduce the prices of OEMs, it is estimated that the output value of Taiwan's packaging and testing industry will reach NT$3 in 2011, respectively. , 10.4 billion and 137.6 billion, only 4.5% and 3.7% over 2010.
On the whole, the semiconductor industry in Taiwan will decline slightly in 2011, with a production value of NT$1.6653 trillion, a 5.8% decline from 2010.
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