Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the mobile phone industry data from January to August this year. About 714 million mobile phones are produced in the industry, an increase of only 1.4% year-on-year. According to statistics, even in 2008-2009 when the economic crisis broke out, the growth rate of China's mobile phone production is far greater than this.
In view of this, there are views that the entire mobile phone industry has begun to decline due to the impact of the economic environment. However, there are also different voices in the industry, saying that the domestic mobile phone manufacturing industry in the first half of this year is experiencing the most difficult period in the process of changing from a functional machine to a smart machine, which belongs to a special period.
Strong domestic market demand
Although only the first eight months recorded more than 700 million units of output, surpassing the 2009 level of 619 million units. However, compared with any previous year, the 1.4% year-on-year growth level still looks a little "unable."
It is worth noting that, in addition to domestic sales of mobile phones manufactured in China, most of them are exported. For example, Apple ’s iPhone, which continues to record high sales, is all produced in China. Also from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2009, China's mobile phone production accounted for 50% of global shipments. By 2010, this proportion had risen to 60%. From January to August this year, China produced and sold 272 million mobile phones, accounting for about 38% of the total output. In fact, in the case of slowing demand in overseas markets, it is the domestic market that has pulled the mobile phone manufacturing industry. According to statistics, this number has increased by 10% year-on-year, much higher than the growth rate of mobile phone manufacturing.
"It is difficult to prop up the entire mobile phone manufacturing industry only by the domestic market. However, the situation may not seem to be so bad. The simple production figures do not explain the problem." Zhang Xing, an analyst at the consultancy R aTIonalA B said, In the first half of this year, smartphones with relatively high prices began to gradually replace feature phones that had occupied most of the market in the past, so the total value of the industry was not low. "This is obvious both in the domestic market and the foreign market."
Change of intelligent machine and function machine dynasty
The latest research report released by the research institute IHS recently pointed out that in 2013, half of the global mobile phone market will be smartphones, and the market has achieved this goal two years earlier than previously expected. Among them, IHS also specifically mentioned that the growth of smart phones this year has greatly surpassed the growth of feature phones, which is similar to the results of ID C's survey.
"In the past 12 months, the price of smartphones has declined, and more models have appeared. The hot sale of low-end smartphone products in the Asia-Pacific region, and the hot sale of mid- and high-end products in the United States and Europe, let This year, smartphone shipments have grown by leaps and bounds. "IHS expects that smartphones will account for two-thirds of the global market share by 2016.
"It's not just the increase in the proportion of smart phones. The rate of 'abandonment' of feature phones in the developing country market represented by China is much higher than the industry's overall expectations. It's also a big factor." It is known that many brands in the first half of this year are clearing the inventory of functional machines, consuming a lot of resources, and they cannot fully invest in the smart phone market. He said that this period is a special stage of market hotspot alternation, which is largely "out of stock" rather than "not sold" (referring to smartphones), and does not represent the normal level of the mobile phone market.
This statement was also confirmed in the upstream of the industry chain for quite some time before National Day. Taiwanese chip maker MediaTek's dual-core smart machine solution MT 6577 has always been in short supply.
Profit shackles are still unsolved
If the so-called "China's mobile phone output growth in the first eight months of this year is only 1.4%" is just a "false alarm", everything must be blamed on the special period of smart phone / function machine market conversion, does it mean that the road ahead is smooth?
In addition to several important indicators of mobile phone production, sales, output value and sales, profit is also a factor that must be considered. Although the absolute price of a smartphone is higher than that of a functional machine, that does not mean that the profit of a single machine is also It must be higher.
"Last year's 1G memory smartphone sold for 799 yuan, this year is 599 yuan, the configuration is getting higher and lower, but the price is getting lower and lower." Cool Xu mobile phone brand marketing department director Li Xuqing told reporters that the current price of smartphones has been in a downward channel For some domestic mobile phone manufacturers, doing more may mean losing a lot.
Zhu Jizhi, executive vice president of IC component e-commerce Cogobuy, believes that smartphone prices continue to decline and profits are thinning, and Google should bear the main responsibility. "As the core of the Android industry chain, Google should bear the responsibility of building a good ecosystem." Zhu Jizhi said that this disorderly development will defy the smartphone industry.
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