Light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have revolutionized the television industry, which is a huge improvement, but MarketWatch technology columnist John C. Dvorak points out that the TV industry never imagined that they This time it turned out to be self-restraint. This technology, which can be “immortalâ€, will greatly extend the TV replacement cycle. Once the market is saturated, the TV industry and various related industries will basically lose all growth potential. In view of this, he advised investors to stay away from flat panels and stocks of various related companies.
The following is the original text of the Dvorak column:
For technology investors, if there is any investment that is best avoided now, it is undoubtedly the flat panel industry, or rather the flat-panel TV industry.
It sounds a bit too arbitrary. After all, there are some excellent companies in the industry. They have the best sales channels, can manufacture and sell the lowest price products, and offer the most features. However, even the best ones. Enterprises, their fate is also doomed tough.
The key to the problem lies in the speed of improvement and improvement of these displays. Specifically, the update cycle of a generation of products is about five years.
Connections, copyright protection, and other internal technologies are relatively trivial and insignificant. The average update cycle for these technologies is about two years. For example, some of the early flat-panel TV products did not have an extremely popular HDMI connection, which naturally increased the burden of the owner, because most modern devices cannot be combined with this TV.
Most of the current products are mostly based on a very complicated 3D technology. This allows users to watch 3D movies on TV or images and videos they took with their 3D camcorders.
In just one or two years, most high-end TV products will be fully 3D. Although in my opinion, 3D is somewhat fashionable and fanatical, it is undeniable that this fanaticism must be rooted in the TV industry because the TV industry has no choice but to incorporate 3D into its comprehensive system. Nintendo has also played a big role in this, they launched the latest 3D DS, which also integrates a small 3D camera.
At present, the trend of the TV industry is 240 HZ - in order to ensure the perfect presentation of 3D functions - and light-emitting diodes (LED). I think that for TV and other monitor sales, backlighting issues will have long-term negative effects.
Initially, at the back of those LCD monitors or TVs, we rely on fluorescent bulbs to illuminate. The life of these bulbs is limited and the overall life expectancy is approximately five to seven years, depending on the design and usage.
In any case, these new products age much faster than older cathode ray tubes. For example, my home now has an old-fashioned cathode ray tube TV, which children use to play games, and its age is almost 30 years old.
One of the most critical factors in achieving success in consumer electronics is the need to have a clear plan for product degradation and elimination. If anything that people buy can be used for a lifetime, companies can no longer expect to make more profits from them. Therefore, companies must learn to constantly create new sales drivers and not allow the market to be completely saturated.
As early as the 1970s, Philips (PHG) developed a smart bulb filled with inert gas. It uses a variety of electronic technologies that can be used to minimize filament loss and automatically shut down after a period of time. I still have two such light bulbs, which have been used for thirty years.
However, we have to admit that a light bulb like this should actually be withdrawn from the market before it is widely popular. The reason is obvious.
The current LED light source also has this life-long feature, which is significant, and it is terrible that everyone accepts the concept that it should be used for a lifetime and completely fix it. In any use, the LED source will be used all the time.
Today's LCD TVs, the backlight source is just this "immortal" technology. Such a trend will not stop because the LEDs are more reliable and consume less energy. My home used a 50-watt outdoor insect-repellent lamp. Now I have replaced it with a light-emitting diode product. The effect is exactly the same, but the power consumption is greatly reduced.
Light-emitting diode technology has now dominated the entire TV and computer display market, and with the constant price drop, it is almost certain to enter all lighting markets. When it is completely unified, companies will feel the real pain, because they can no longer get the corresponding profits from the normal aging and damage of the products.
This puts many industries at risk, especially in the TV industry. They will find that the TV replacement cycle of consumers has been greatly extended, even surpassing the era of cathode ray tube. In this case, whether it is Sony (SNE), Panasonic (PC) or Corning (GLW), once the latest generation of TV products on the market is saturated, they will find that their sales have not found the driving force.
Personally, I think all relevant industries, from chip makers to glass makers, as long as they are related to flat panels, investors should stay away from it. Of course, as consumers, we don't have to say, of course, we should choose the latest LED TV.
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